Into the Final Stretch of the 2020 election, a Super Close Race

Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.

The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.

Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.

Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Who is Winning in the Race to be President

In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.

At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.

The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.

The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.

it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.

There’s a Storm Coming…

If this model holds up, be Hurricane Sandy like winds tomorrow into New Jersey. Won’t be the low pressure of Sandy, but it could feel intense.

Sandy made landfall at 946mb, not far from Atlantic City in 2012. It was a hybrid pressure storm. Those 80-90mph winds in Sandy came loaded with category 4 hurricane energy, where as (if the model holds), those 80mph to 90mph winds tomorrow could be intense, but not nearly as destructive.

Our storm is intensifying tonight. Whatever the endgame now, this could pack a nasty punch for some. Might be a good idea to batten down the hatches, and prepare for a wild ride.

20200803_215015
Model: ECMWF

 

 

Mask Hypocrisy

In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said, “While masks may block some droplets, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences.”

Months later, wearing masks has become a political flashpoint issue as COVID cases have yet to recede in parts of the nation, but here is Dr. Fauci yesterday at a baseball game after throwing out the first pitch, now not wearing his mask, and not social distancing.

America has a Federalist government, meaning that the Federal government does not exercise central control over our 50 states, but works in conjunction with the states, who also have their own Constitutional and state level powers. In times of a pandemic, states do have police power, and can make their own decisions on mask mandates.

Federally, there is no national mask mandate, even though many want this in a bad way. It continues to be this writer’s opinion that COVID is a contagious virus, we know who is most vulnerable to COVID related illness and they should be protected, but for a nation the size of America where infections are not soaring everywhere, it is important to keep perspective and a cool head, and not impose mandates on everyone to be politically correct.

While caution is wise, the COVID-19 hysteria continues to be severely overhyped.

If you want to wear a mask, have at it. But please don’t be a hypocrite.

Fauci USA Today

Photo Credit: USA Today

 

 

Thoughts on the George Floyd Case and Due Process

The video imagery of the George Floyd arrest on May 25, 2020 while Floyd appeared to be foaming at the mouth, while in a neck restraint was both disturbing and horrible to watch.

That said, I’m in the tiny minority that doesn’t believe what happened to George Floyd was excessive police force, or murder. I also believe the four police officers were trained and skilled, and were doing their job, and this case has zero to do with racism. The national uprising that led to riots and unrest could have been avoided had everyone let due process play out, and evidence weighed.

In America, we have ‘Due Process’ and presumption of innocence deeply embedded in our legal system. This means, the law (and Constitution) give the accused the right to fair treatment during the legal process, and allow the process of evidence to be compiled and objectively reviewed.

The lead video (there were three public videos, and activated police body cams) of George Floyd show one angle of the arrest, and neck restraint. Other video angles add to the evidence, and there were three autopsy reports, and a criminal complaint with a progression of documented events anyone interested in the case should read.

I’m arguing George Floyd was possibly having a heart attack during the arrest, while resisting arrest, and likely died of a health condition, and not from the neck restraint. The autopsy reports list heart disease, heavy drug use, and no evidence of strangulation from the neck restraint, which is listed a non deadly force option in the Minneapolis Police Department Policy & Procedure Manual.

On the initial 911 call, there was legit concern George Floyd was under the influence of some kind of substance when the alleged crime was committed, and during the time of arrest.

Yesterday the body cam transcripts were released. What is most interesting is while Floyd was standing (not on the ground in the restraint yet), officers observed foam on Floyd’s mouth. Also, at one point it was suggested maybe Floyd was on the drug PCP, a point I argued on May 28. Though PCP is not listed as a substance in the autopsy reports. Point is, Floyd was on a strong enough drug (Fentanyl and Methamphetamine listed on autopsy) that officers noticed shaking of the eyes, and the behavior of someone who just wasn’t acting right.

All this is important to the case, and while initial evidence was quickly overlooked to drive a reform agenda, now we wait for a trial (scheduled for March 2021), so evidence can be submitted and weighed.

Social Distancing: There are two sides to this coin

All in the family gif

Social distancing is a deeply personal and public issue, and our society and much of the civilized world has chosen to close down for safety reasons.

COVID-19 is a contagious disease. Back in January when Coronavirus became international news, people were thinking the disease had an RO of 3.8. Now it’s considered to be 2.0 to 2.5 RO. (RO is mathematical for determining how quick a disease spreads and reproduces itself)

There is some wisdom to social distancing. Obviously, with such a contagious disease, we want to avoid people who are sick. If you are sick, everyone agrees, quarantine yourself. Isolate the vulnerable elderly.

That said, and I know this is going to come off as controversial in a time when most states are shut down to some extent, but I’m observing when governments force social distancing on major cities, if enough people are infected in that city, forced social distancing can dramatically drive up case and death toll #’s as families huddle together, like we’re seeing in New York City.

Allow me to explain.

The current epicenter of Coronavirus cases in America is in Corona (Queens), NY. That’s an interesting enough coincidence, and it got me digging into demographics and trends.

Corona (Queens) was the fictional setting for the 1970’s television show ‘All in the Family’, which at the time was a cultural blockbuster hit, with over 60 million Americans tuning in to watch each week.

The opening credits of All in the Family had Archie and Edith Bunker singing the opening show theme as the camera hovered over New York City, eventually zooming into Queens, and ending at the Bunker House. Can see the opening theme on the below GIF. And as an All in the Family fan, I’ve been to the Bunker house that was used in the credits.

Two weeks ago I began arguing that the trends show Coronavirus clusters were showing up in densely populated residential areas. The All in the Family opening (into Corona) credits shows exactly what I’m talking about.

Higher case trends in the New Orleans region is another example. After mass crowds were shoulder to shoulder at Mardi Gras in February, the locals went back to their homes not far away and mostly spread the virus to family members.

The media doesn’t talk about this, but it’s become clear to doctors in NYC (who are learning more and more about Coronavirus each day), that the vast majority of Coronavirus cases are spreading at home, among families living together in those homes. Not just in NYC (Brooklyn, Queens), but overseas, in densely populated ares of Spain, France, Italy and China, where strict social distancing orders went in place in the last 1-3 months. These NYC doctors working at the big hospitals are seeing large amounts of sick patients each day, and are coming to their own conclusions on what the trends are, and how the virus is spread.

What we’re hearing now, is transmission of Coronavirus is more likely to happen when a person touches or is in sustained contact (15 to 30 minutes) with an infected person who has symptoms (fever, aches), or that infected person is 1-2 days away from getting sick.

Nothing new here, but the quickest way to get infected (if you’ve been in contact with an infected person is to touch your face (eyes, nose, mouth). So washing hands, and using hand sanitizer are highly recommended, and there is sound wisdom there.

Also, becoming clearer for some, that if you are sick, NYC doctors appear to prefer folks go to the hospital for evaluation if you have shortness of breath. Having a fever, and aches can be symptoms of COVID-19, but most people are not going to get sick from COVID, and more likely will have the cold or flu. Shortness of breath is when things are considered to be problematic. Also, for the statistically tiny % of the population that gets really sick from COVID-19, you really don’t want to be on a ventilator.

Rare for me to make such a statement, but if someone is that sick, options could be tough. Some may well consider taking something like Hydroxycloroquine that has some side effects, vs. going on a ventilator, and being heavily sedated for 7-10 days in a near coma. If a really sick person goes on a ventilator, and they are lucky, maybe they’ll come out of the experience not the same, but still alive.

Which brings me to the COVID-19 models, which are only as good as the best data, and the data has been lousy. In January, when ‘the experts’ thought COVID-19 was 3.8 RO, they were also saying 65 million people would die (globally). I documented this on Jan 25, and referenced that statistic for this post. Then last month, the experts said 1-2 million people could die, and showed those models to states and cities who hysterically shut down their economies, and now we’re near shut down as a nation. The Global death toll today is 82,191.

The most cited model now (IHME) projects (In USA, not globally) near 82,000 will die by August 4. Now everyone is dramatically scaling back their projections on death toll, hospitalizations, # of needed ventilators, to # of infected. Why? As I pointed out in my Detroit post on March 30, not every city is as densely populated as New York City. And, for a big region to see a spike in cases, need a lot of people infected in one densely populated area. That’s not happening everywhere.

I’m arguing, in a major city like New York City, after 1-2 months of mass transit closeness (subway, cab, uber, rail, etc), where people traveled together for sustained periods of time and got infected, once the state social distancing orders went into effect, masses of people were forced to stay at home in densely populated residential neighborhoods, with lots of families living together, and then things got really bad, really quick. Notice how NYC and Italy soon exploded in cases and death tolls when the lockdowns began?

Even as models are now scaling back the apocalyptic projections, the IHME model (subject to change based on new data) is saying this for peak dates, and death toll projections:

New York (Peaks tomorrow): Near 16,000 deaths by Aug 4.
New Jersey: (Peaks on April 11): Near 5300 deaths by Aug 4
Michigan (Peaks tomorrow): Near 2300 deaths by Aug 4
Louisiana (Peaked April 4): Near 850 deaths by Aug 4
Colorado (Peaked April 4) Near 300 deaths by Aug 4
California: (Peaks on April 13): Near 1600 deaths by Aug 4
Washington: (Peaked on April 2): Near 700 deaths by Aug 4

Model Link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We’re still in a national emergency, and will be for awhile, but trends, data and reality are going to become clearer and clearer in coming weeks, and millions of people are going to be asking tough questions about why this happened, and I’m arguing a day of reckoning for the experts could be coming.

So here we are now. Many businesses have shut down, 10 million (minimum) Americans are out of work, we’re likely into a severe recession (or worse), and many businesses (and retailers) have invested and implemented social distancing guidelines, and overhauled their operations for public safety, and that’s the way it needs to be for now.

But I’m arguing, by simple observation, that as the experts who predicted mass death are now scaling back their projections, and have to save face by saying social distancing is working (and it does to a point), on simple observation, forced social distancing IS also the spark that makes the pandemic explode in big, densely populated cities.

COVID-19 is a contagious disease. There are no easy answers.

There are probably going to be several more smaller COVID-19 peaks through 2021. And we need to reopen our economy, and be smarter about trends, why some big cities see explosions in cases and death tolls (and most don’t), transmission realities, and how to do social distancing reasonably, so we don’t have a multi-year year severe recession, or economic depression.

Gif: All in the Family Opening/Theme (Top)
Photo: All in the Family House, near 50 years later (Photo Credit: Me)
All in the family

Some Perspective (Coronavirus)

Problematic clusters of Cornavirus cases appear more likely in:

1. Densely populated major cities, but not as severe in the downtown of a big city.
2. Uptown areas of a metropolitan area
3. Suburban neighborhoods closer to a big city
4. Inner City
5. Some tourist regions

At this time, New York State has 22x the case rate as Detroit area, and 176x the case rate as San Francisco.

Major State/County/City Case #’s (At this time)

– NYS: 60,000
– Detroit (County): 2704
– Seattle (County): 2077
– Los Angeles Area: 1818
– New Orleans (County): 1350
– Miami: 1192
– San Jose: 591
– Dallas (County): 488
– San Francisco: 340

In Michigan, 46% of the state’s cases are in Wayne County (Detroit area). Put another way, 82% of all cases in Michigan (at this time) are in 3 counties making up larger Detroit Metro, and outskirts.

In New Orleans, about 1.4 million people crammed into the city for Mardi Gras in February, so there’s a tourist connection, and explanation (I think) on why Louisiana is a hotspot.

In California, at this time, the state has about 5,700 cases vs. New York at near 60,000 cases.

– Los Angeles has 32% of California’s cases.
– Combined, Bay Area, Orange County and San Diego have 44% of the state’s cases.

Map: State of California Coronavirus ClustersCoronavirus CACredit: KSBW8/John Hopkins map

AP Headline: NIH’s Fauci projects possible ‘millions’ of US coronavirus cases, ‘100,000-200,000’ deaths.

Dr. Anthony Fauci is the medical expert face behind Coronavirus, who just significantly downsized his projections.

That 1-2 million death toll number that made everyone lose their minds and clean out supermarkets is no longer being used.

Here’s some math on Fauci’s new projections:

At 1-2% mortality rate in USA, to see roughly 100,000 to 200,000 deaths means 5 to 10 million people infected. Would need to see 300-600 deaths a day in America for the next 1-2 years to see that kind of death toll.

Using the mortality rate mostly seen in big city suburbs, or uptown parts of big city metros, Fauci’s projections would suggest 10 million Americans will get Coronavirus.

An estimated 61 million were infected with Swine Flu in 2009, and 12,400 died.

The news outlets got their big headline this morning. I’m skeptical.