Coronavirus Endgame

The news and images out of Italy, and the spike in cases in their nation is concerning, just as the Coronavirus quarantine images out of China a few weeks ago were. But China is significantly improving. We know this because of reports from companies like Apple and Starbucks who have resumed much of their business operations in China.

What appears to have happened in Italy (and Iran), is that Chinese visitors were traveling into the country for business and vacation at much higher rates in 2019, so the spread of the virus was rapid in a smaller, dense area.

I have connections into China, via factory manufacturing, and know from insiders who work directly with Chinese factories that things have gotten much better, and the factories are mostly back up to speed. The unfortunate thing I am told, is the Chinese people are not socializing like they were before the Coronavirus outbreak. Work is getting back to normal in China (and Hong Kong), but social activities have not much recovered.

So that’s my new concern for America. A post Coronavirus nation where maybe work and travel get back to normal somewhat for awhile, but the social distancing being pushed on society now to combat the spread of the virus could have longer term social impacts.

In addition to measures President Trump took weeks ago that don’t get much credit, now that President Trump has moved to limit the flow of air travel from parts of Europe, theoretically, the spread of the virus soon runs it’s course into international ports of entry regions, and other than (hopefully) a trickle of new cases, things dry up in coming weeks/months.

For most people who do contract it, mild to moderate Coronavirus symptoms appear to last 2-4 days. Once people are no longer contagious, it appears the disease goes away. So with the Europe travel limits, and social distancing in play now, measures are in place that should limit transmission.

That said, I think we expect new cases, but I am very skeptical of the so called medical experts who say 150 million Americans will contract this virus, and up to a million people can die. Those kind of numbers are nowhere near reality (at this time) in China where three months after the outbreak got bad, life is somewhat getting back to normal. If the 150 million figure was real, then 600 million people in China would have Coronavirus now, and we hear nothing of that.

I still don’t think we are seeing a significant outbreak in America, although Seattle and parts of downstate New York are seeing clusters of cases, but if you want to call 1000+ cases significant, whatever.

These are still not Swine Flu (2009 outbreak) numbers.

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