In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.
At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.
The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.
The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.
it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.