Into the Final Stretch of the 2020 election, a Super Close Race

Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.

The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.

Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.

Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Who is Winning in the Race to be President

In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.

At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.

The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.

The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.

it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.

Intensifying Storm

Tropical Storm Isaias may be on the path to becoming a hurricane again, and is intensifying tonight.

Some forecasts now see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane potentially impacting the Carolinas, with hurricane force gusts up along the East Coast through Long Island.

Been some intense models in recent days, but consensus called it a Tropical Storm.

Whatever the endgame, storm will be a big rainmaker, and big windmaker too.

20200802_220933
Model: ECMWF

 

 

 

Mask Hypocrisy

In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said, “While masks may block some droplets, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences.”

Months later, wearing masks has become a political flashpoint issue as COVID cases have yet to recede in parts of the nation, but here is Dr. Fauci yesterday at a baseball game after throwing out the first pitch, now not wearing his mask, and not social distancing.

America has a Federalist government, meaning that the Federal government does not exercise central control over our 50 states, but works in conjunction with the states, who also have their own Constitutional and state level powers. In times of a pandemic, states do have police power, and can make their own decisions on mask mandates.

Federally, there is no national mask mandate, even though many want this in a bad way. It continues to be this writer’s opinion that COVID is a contagious virus, we know who is most vulnerable to COVID related illness and they should be protected, but for a nation the size of America where infections are not soaring everywhere, it is important to keep perspective and a cool head, and not impose mandates on everyone to be politically correct.

While caution is wise, the COVID-19 hysteria continues to be severely overhyped.

If you want to wear a mask, have at it. But please don’t be a hypocrite.

Fauci USA Today

Photo Credit: USA Today

 

 

Some Perspective (Coronavirus)

Problematic clusters of Cornavirus cases appear more likely in:

1. Densely populated major cities, but not as severe in the downtown of a big city.
2. Uptown areas of a metropolitan area
3. Suburban neighborhoods closer to a big city
4. Inner City
5. Some tourist regions

At this time, New York State has 22x the case rate as Detroit area, and 176x the case rate as San Francisco.

Major State/County/City Case #’s (At this time)

– NYS: 60,000
– Detroit (County): 2704
– Seattle (County): 2077
– Los Angeles Area: 1818
– New Orleans (County): 1350
– Miami: 1192
– San Jose: 591
– Dallas (County): 488
– San Francisco: 340

In Michigan, 46% of the state’s cases are in Wayne County (Detroit area). Put another way, 82% of all cases in Michigan (at this time) are in 3 counties making up larger Detroit Metro, and outskirts.

In New Orleans, about 1.4 million people crammed into the city for Mardi Gras in February, so there’s a tourist connection, and explanation (I think) on why Louisiana is a hotspot.

In California, at this time, the state has about 5,700 cases vs. New York at near 60,000 cases.

– Los Angeles has 32% of California’s cases.
– Combined, Bay Area, Orange County and San Diego have 44% of the state’s cases.

Map: State of California Coronavirus ClustersCoronavirus CACredit: KSBW8/John Hopkins map

Coronavirus Observations via NYC Map

This map was helpful to gain some perspective. For those who don’t know New York City, there are five boroughs (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island) in a city with over 8 million in population. NYC metropolitan population (including New Jersey, Connecticut, and Long Island) is about 20 million.

Coronavirus

Map: Govt of NYC, via Daily Mail

The red and deeper orange areas on the map represent the highest clusters of positive tests (via Govt of NYC map), and you can see this mostly in Brooklyn (left center), and Queens (right center), the two most densely populated boroughs in New York City.

At the top of the NYC map is ‘The Bronx’ with a concentration or deeper orange, while Manhattan (center left) isn’t as critical, except for parts of Harlem, Chelsea and Washington Heights. Staten Island (lower left) isn’t that bad either. Clearly NYC has a Coronavirus problem, as does New Jersey (mostly Bergen County), just across the Hudson River, where people commute by rail, and bus.

In Bergen County, New Jersey, the three cities that seem to be most impacted are Hackensack, Englewood and Teaneck, all near each other, and again more populated urban residential areas; but a lot of Northern NJ is like that anyway.

What’s interesting to me, is again, the highest cluster of cases are in the most densely populated areas of New York City, but here, both Brooklyn and Queens also have the largest senior population in all of New York City.

And these neighborhoods are often heavy residential, with lots of larger apartment buildings, or housing projects. When people think of New York City, they often think of the skyline in Manhattan, but the Coronavirus epicenter of NYC is across the bridges and tunnels into neighborhoods people don’t hear about as often, or even know about.

At the continual risk of being wrong, I just don’t see high NYC case #’s occurring in too many other places around the nation, unless in densely populated big city areas.

But Brooklyn and Queens are a problem, and New York City is approaching an Italy style surge of death rates.

Coronavirus Endgame

The news and images out of Italy, and the spike in cases in their nation is concerning, just as the Coronavirus quarantine images out of China a few weeks ago were. But China is significantly improving. We know this because of reports from companies like Apple and Starbucks who have resumed much of their business operations in China.

What appears to have happened in Italy (and Iran), is that Chinese visitors were traveling into the country for business and vacation at much higher rates in 2019, so the spread of the virus was rapid in a smaller, dense area.

I have connections into China, via factory manufacturing, and know from insiders who work directly with Chinese factories that things have gotten much better, and the factories are mostly back up to speed. The unfortunate thing I am told, is the Chinese people are not socializing like they were before the Coronavirus outbreak. Work is getting back to normal in China (and Hong Kong), but social activities have not much recovered.

So that’s my new concern for America. A post Coronavirus nation where maybe work and travel get back to normal somewhat for awhile, but the social distancing being pushed on society now to combat the spread of the virus could have longer term social impacts.

In addition to measures President Trump took weeks ago that don’t get much credit, now that President Trump has moved to limit the flow of air travel from parts of Europe, theoretically, the spread of the virus soon runs it’s course into international ports of entry regions, and other than (hopefully) a trickle of new cases, things dry up in coming weeks/months.

For most people who do contract it, mild to moderate Coronavirus symptoms appear to last 2-4 days. Once people are no longer contagious, it appears the disease goes away. So with the Europe travel limits, and social distancing in play now, measures are in place that should limit transmission.

That said, I think we expect new cases, but I am very skeptical of the so called medical experts who say 150 million Americans will contract this virus, and up to a million people can die. Those kind of numbers are nowhere near reality (at this time) in China where three months after the outbreak got bad, life is somewhat getting back to normal. If the 150 million figure was real, then 600 million people in China would have Coronavirus now, and we hear nothing of that.

I still don’t think we are seeing a significant outbreak in America, although Seattle and parts of downstate New York are seeing clusters of cases, but if you want to call 1000+ cases significant, whatever.

These are still not Swine Flu (2009 outbreak) numbers.

The Great Coronavirus Panic of 2020

It appears the situation in China is improving as Starbucks are re-opening stores there, and Apple says factories are getting back to normal. Meanwhile, not much in new case activity in USA.

I’ve been on the road for a few days, and aside from the horror headlines, life is somewhat normal.

But people want to panic anyway, and there are no shortage of people in media and on Twitter pushing the PANIC button. The stock market has lost trillions in the last few days, and in some parts of the country, supermarket shelves are beginning to go empty. But not everywhere.

My big concern continues to be that irrational panic, and not the virus itself.

I continue to think President Trump did a good preventative job containing the virus for weeks before anyone really knew what was going on, and while it’s not out of the question a significant outbreak could happen in America, at this time, I’m not anticipating one.

That said, the panic (at this time) is self-fulfilling, irrational and contagious. I think people need to stop and look around to see that China is improving, and we don’t have a major outbreak in USA (at this time).

That said, should a significant outbreak happen in USA, I do fully expect the government would forcefully move quick to quarantine it, and all the warnings everyone is seeing could become a possibility (school closings, etc).

Otherwise, for tonight at least, all is good in America, except the stock market.

Coronavirus – Panic Justified or Overhyped?

I tend to agree, for now.

“But in spite of the global panic in the news about this virus, you’re unlikely to contract COVID-19 unless you’ve been in contact with someone who’s recently traveled to certain parts of China.

There’s no need to worry about the 2019 coronavirus if you haven’t recently traveled to China or been in contact with someone who’s been diagnosed with the virus.” (Link Here)

Obamacare Unconstitutional? A Nightmare for Republicans

The world has changed some.

Republicans didn’t lose the House last month to gun control, climate change, or immigration. They got wiped out in the suburbs, and elsewhere by Health care.

2018 Midterms was about Health care. Period.

If last night’s ruling holds, Republicans can weaken themselves electorally in suburbs, and swing states, thereby putting the Republican Presidency at risk in 2020, and losing odds to win back the House.

This isn’t 2010. Health care is now a political winner, and pre-existing conditions are the new Holy Grail of Health Care.

Next time Dems are in power, they’ll push for Medicare-for-all, which would be a disaster.

We’ll see how the coming months go, but at this point, if the Obamacare ruling holds, I’m thinking Congress gives Trump his wall, in exchange for protecting pre-existing conditions.

RT nicholaskitchel: This is the photo taken at the White House right after HouseGOP voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act last year.

Everyone with an ❌ has since been voted out of Congress.

Health Care