Into the Final Stretch of the 2020 election, a Super Close Race

Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.

The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.

Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.

Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Who is Winning in the Race to be President

In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.

At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.

The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.

The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.

it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.

There’s a Storm Coming…

If this model holds up, be Hurricane Sandy like winds tomorrow into New Jersey. Won’t be the low pressure of Sandy, but it could feel intense.

Sandy made landfall at 946mb, not far from Atlantic City in 2012. It was a hybrid pressure storm. Those 80-90mph winds in Sandy came loaded with category 4 hurricane energy, where as (if the model holds), those 80mph to 90mph winds tomorrow could be intense, but not nearly as destructive.

Our storm is intensifying tonight. Whatever the endgame now, this could pack a nasty punch for some. Might be a good idea to batten down the hatches, and prepare for a wild ride.

20200803_215015
Model: ECMWF

 

 

Intensifying Storm

Tropical Storm Isaias may be on the path to becoming a hurricane again, and is intensifying tonight.

Some forecasts now see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane potentially impacting the Carolinas, with hurricane force gusts up along the East Coast through Long Island.

Been some intense models in recent days, but consensus called it a Tropical Storm.

Whatever the endgame, storm will be a big rainmaker, and big windmaker too.

20200802_220933
Model: ECMWF

 

 

 

Hurricane Alert (Updated)

Saturday Update: Hurricane Isaias has weakened after brushing up with Hispaniola, and continues to struggle with shear. At this time, those possible higher intensity projections look dubious.

—-

The entire East Coast should be on high alert, and rapid intensification of Hurricane Isaias is on the table.

I warned of a Category 4 potential the other day which could be a devastating storm in itself, and now the best experts are seeing possible CAT2 or CAT3 potential.

North Carolina could have a problem, and Florida coast needs to be on guard.

This is why I never blow off the outlier models.

Not a forecast.

20200731_072606

Mask Hypocrisy

In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said, “While masks may block some droplets, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences.”

Months later, wearing masks has become a political flashpoint issue as COVID cases have yet to recede in parts of the nation, but here is Dr. Fauci yesterday at a baseball game after throwing out the first pitch, now not wearing his mask, and not social distancing.

America has a Federalist government, meaning that the Federal government does not exercise central control over our 50 states, but works in conjunction with the states, who also have their own Constitutional and state level powers. In times of a pandemic, states do have police power, and can make their own decisions on mask mandates.

Federally, there is no national mask mandate, even though many want this in a bad way. It continues to be this writer’s opinion that COVID is a contagious virus, we know who is most vulnerable to COVID related illness and they should be protected, but for a nation the size of America where infections are not soaring everywhere, it is important to keep perspective and a cool head, and not impose mandates on everyone to be politically correct.

While caution is wise, the COVID-19 hysteria continues to be severely overhyped.

If you want to wear a mask, have at it. But please don’t be a hypocrite.

Fauci USA Today

Photo Credit: USA Today

 

 

Thoughts on the George Floyd Case and Due Process

The video imagery of the George Floyd arrest on May 25, 2020 while Floyd appeared to be foaming at the mouth, while in a neck restraint was both disturbing and horrible to watch.

That said, I’m in the tiny minority that doesn’t believe what happened to George Floyd was excessive police force, or murder. I also believe the four police officers were trained and skilled, and were doing their job, and this case has zero to do with racism. The national uprising that led to riots and unrest could have been avoided had everyone let due process play out, and evidence weighed.

In America, we have ‘Due Process’ and presumption of innocence deeply embedded in our legal system. This means, the law (and Constitution) give the accused the right to fair treatment during the legal process, and allow the process of evidence to be compiled and objectively reviewed.

The lead video (there were three public videos, and activated police body cams) of George Floyd show one angle of the arrest, and neck restraint. Other video angles add to the evidence, and there were three autopsy reports, and a criminal complaint with a progression of documented events anyone interested in the case should read.

I’m arguing George Floyd was possibly having a heart attack during the arrest, while resisting arrest, and likely died of a health condition, and not from the neck restraint. The autopsy reports list heart disease, heavy drug use, and no evidence of strangulation from the neck restraint, which is listed a non deadly force option in the Minneapolis Police Department Policy & Procedure Manual.

On the initial 911 call, there was legit concern George Floyd was under the influence of some kind of substance when the alleged crime was committed, and during the time of arrest.

Yesterday the body cam transcripts were released. What is most interesting is while Floyd was standing (not on the ground in the restraint yet), officers observed foam on Floyd’s mouth. Also, at one point it was suggested maybe Floyd was on the drug PCP, a point I argued on May 28. Though PCP is not listed as a substance in the autopsy reports. Point is, Floyd was on a strong enough drug (Fentanyl and Methamphetamine listed on autopsy) that officers noticed shaking of the eyes, and the behavior of someone who just wasn’t acting right.

All this is important to the case, and while initial evidence was quickly overlooked to drive a reform agenda, now we wait for a trial (scheduled for March 2021), so evidence can be submitted and weighed.

When Coronavirus Will Peak (By State) according to an IHME Model

New model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projects the Coronavirus peak date for all 50 states.

Model suggests:

New York state will see it’s Coronavirus outbreak peak by April 9, and the last state, Virginia, peaks by May 17.

The model projects 83,967 people will have died by August 4, 2020. Somewhat less than new 100,000 to 200,000 death toll projections, which is bad, but far better than the 1-2 million death projection.

Reports from Seattle and San Francisco suggest social distancing is flattening the curve.

After the crisis is over, people will debate if it was social distancing that worked, or the virus ran its course, and peaked on it’s own, as the experts and models are now publishing peak dates anyway.