Into the Final Stretch of the 2020 election, a Super Close Race

Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.

The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.

Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.

Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Who is Winning in the Race to be President

In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.

At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.

The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.

The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.

it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.

There’s a Storm Coming…

If this model holds up, be Hurricane Sandy like winds tomorrow into New Jersey. Won’t be the low pressure of Sandy, but it could feel intense.

Sandy made landfall at 946mb, not far from Atlantic City in 2012. It was a hybrid pressure storm. Those 80-90mph winds in Sandy came loaded with category 4 hurricane energy, where as (if the model holds), those 80mph to 90mph winds tomorrow could be intense, but not nearly as destructive.

Our storm is intensifying tonight. Whatever the endgame now, this could pack a nasty punch for some. Might be a good idea to batten down the hatches, and prepare for a wild ride.

20200803_215015
Model: ECMWF

 

 

Mask Hypocrisy

In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said, “While masks may block some droplets, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences.”

Months later, wearing masks has become a political flashpoint issue as COVID cases have yet to recede in parts of the nation, but here is Dr. Fauci yesterday at a baseball game after throwing out the first pitch, now not wearing his mask, and not social distancing.

America has a Federalist government, meaning that the Federal government does not exercise central control over our 50 states, but works in conjunction with the states, who also have their own Constitutional and state level powers. In times of a pandemic, states do have police power, and can make their own decisions on mask mandates.

Federally, there is no national mask mandate, even though many want this in a bad way. It continues to be this writer’s opinion that COVID is a contagious virus, we know who is most vulnerable to COVID related illness and they should be protected, but for a nation the size of America where infections are not soaring everywhere, it is important to keep perspective and a cool head, and not impose mandates on everyone to be politically correct.

While caution is wise, the COVID-19 hysteria continues to be severely overhyped.

If you want to wear a mask, have at it. But please don’t be a hypocrite.

Fauci USA Today

Photo Credit: USA Today

 

 

Thoughts on the George Floyd Case and Due Process

The video imagery of the George Floyd arrest on May 25, 2020 while Floyd appeared to be foaming at the mouth, while in a neck restraint was both disturbing and horrible to watch.

That said, I’m in the tiny minority that doesn’t believe what happened to George Floyd was excessive police force, or murder. I also believe the four police officers were trained and skilled, and were doing their job, and this case has zero to do with racism. The national uprising that led to riots and unrest could have been avoided had everyone let due process play out, and evidence weighed.

In America, we have ‘Due Process’ and presumption of innocence deeply embedded in our legal system. This means, the law (and Constitution) give the accused the right to fair treatment during the legal process, and allow the process of evidence to be compiled and objectively reviewed.

The lead video (there were three public videos, and activated police body cams) of George Floyd show one angle of the arrest, and neck restraint. Other video angles add to the evidence, and there were three autopsy reports, and a criminal complaint with a progression of documented events anyone interested in the case should read.

I’m arguing George Floyd was possibly having a heart attack during the arrest, while resisting arrest, and likely died of a health condition, and not from the neck restraint. The autopsy reports list heart disease, heavy drug use, and no evidence of strangulation from the neck restraint, which is listed a non deadly force option in the Minneapolis Police Department Policy & Procedure Manual.

On the initial 911 call, there was legit concern George Floyd was under the influence of some kind of substance when the alleged crime was committed, and during the time of arrest.

Yesterday the body cam transcripts were released. What is most interesting is while Floyd was standing (not on the ground in the restraint yet), officers observed foam on Floyd’s mouth. Also, at one point it was suggested maybe Floyd was on the drug PCP, a point I argued on May 28. Though PCP is not listed as a substance in the autopsy reports. Point is, Floyd was on a strong enough drug (Fentanyl and Methamphetamine listed on autopsy) that officers noticed shaking of the eyes, and the behavior of someone who just wasn’t acting right.

All this is important to the case, and while initial evidence was quickly overlooked to drive a reform agenda, now we wait for a trial (scheduled for March 2021), so evidence can be submitted and weighed.

Some Perspective (Coronavirus)

Problematic clusters of Cornavirus cases appear more likely in:

1. Densely populated major cities, but not as severe in the downtown of a big city.
2. Uptown areas of a metropolitan area
3. Suburban neighborhoods closer to a big city
4. Inner City
5. Some tourist regions

At this time, New York State has 22x the case rate as Detroit area, and 176x the case rate as San Francisco.

Major State/County/City Case #’s (At this time)

– NYS: 60,000
– Detroit (County): 2704
– Seattle (County): 2077
– Los Angeles Area: 1818
– New Orleans (County): 1350
– Miami: 1192
– San Jose: 591
– Dallas (County): 488
– San Francisco: 340

In Michigan, 46% of the state’s cases are in Wayne County (Detroit area). Put another way, 82% of all cases in Michigan (at this time) are in 3 counties making up larger Detroit Metro, and outskirts.

In New Orleans, about 1.4 million people crammed into the city for Mardi Gras in February, so there’s a tourist connection, and explanation (I think) on why Louisiana is a hotspot.

In California, at this time, the state has about 5,700 cases vs. New York at near 60,000 cases.

– Los Angeles has 32% of California’s cases.
– Combined, Bay Area, Orange County and San Diego have 44% of the state’s cases.

Map: State of California Coronavirus ClustersCoronavirus CACredit: KSBW8/John Hopkins map

AP Headline: NIH’s Fauci projects possible ‘millions’ of US coronavirus cases, ‘100,000-200,000’ deaths.

Dr. Anthony Fauci is the medical expert face behind Coronavirus, who just significantly downsized his projections.

That 1-2 million death toll number that made everyone lose their minds and clean out supermarkets is no longer being used.

Here’s some math on Fauci’s new projections:

At 1-2% mortality rate in USA, to see roughly 100,000 to 200,000 deaths means 5 to 10 million people infected. Would need to see 300-600 deaths a day in America for the next 1-2 years to see that kind of death toll.

Using the mortality rate mostly seen in big city suburbs, or uptown parts of big city metros, Fauci’s projections would suggest 10 million Americans will get Coronavirus.

An estimated 61 million were infected with Swine Flu in 2009, and 12,400 died.

The news outlets got their big headline this morning. I’m skeptical.

Coronavirus Observations via NYC Map

This map was helpful to gain some perspective. For those who don’t know New York City, there are five boroughs (Manhattan, Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens, and Staten Island) in a city with over 8 million in population. NYC metropolitan population (including New Jersey, Connecticut, and Long Island) is about 20 million.

Coronavirus

Map: Govt of NYC, via Daily Mail

The red and deeper orange areas on the map represent the highest clusters of positive tests (via Govt of NYC map), and you can see this mostly in Brooklyn (left center), and Queens (right center), the two most densely populated boroughs in New York City.

At the top of the NYC map is ‘The Bronx’ with a concentration or deeper orange, while Manhattan (center left) isn’t as critical, except for parts of Harlem, Chelsea and Washington Heights. Staten Island (lower left) isn’t that bad either. Clearly NYC has a Coronavirus problem, as does New Jersey (mostly Bergen County), just across the Hudson River, where people commute by rail, and bus.

In Bergen County, New Jersey, the three cities that seem to be most impacted are Hackensack, Englewood and Teaneck, all near each other, and again more populated urban residential areas; but a lot of Northern NJ is like that anyway.

What’s interesting to me, is again, the highest cluster of cases are in the most densely populated areas of New York City, but here, both Brooklyn and Queens also have the largest senior population in all of New York City.

And these neighborhoods are often heavy residential, with lots of larger apartment buildings, or housing projects. When people think of New York City, they often think of the skyline in Manhattan, but the Coronavirus epicenter of NYC is across the bridges and tunnels into neighborhoods people don’t hear about as often, or even know about.

At the continual risk of being wrong, I just don’t see high NYC case #’s occurring in too many other places around the nation, unless in densely populated big city areas.

But Brooklyn and Queens are a problem, and New York City is approaching an Italy style surge of death rates.