Forget the ridiculous national polls that have no correlation with reality. Those are called ‘suppression polls’ and designed to drive a narrative Trump is losing big, but he isn’t.
The election comes down to a handful of swing states. The 2020 election is super close, both Presidential campaigns know it, and mainstream media pollsters know it too. If it was really a +16 race, Biden wouldn’t be so focused on Pennsylvania or Florida.
Each Presidential campaign has internal polls likely more accurate than these +12 to +16 national polls which are a joke. The election is about state polls now, and the most accurate polls from past election cycles shows Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, and within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Best polling shows Trump has a slight electoral college lead 3 weeks out, and while this map shows Arizona as a tossup, strong Arizona poll for Trump the other day with +4 (Trafalagar Poll). Michigan tilting Trump, and Pennsylvania tilting Biden.
Best thinking today is the race comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In the race for the Presidency, national polls don’t amount to much, because in the end, a handful of battlefield states will determine who wins the race.
At this time, polling aggregates have the race about 7-9 point national lead for Joe Biden, but state polling is telling a much different story.
The reason the prediction markets have a near 50/50 odds, is because states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are close, that is if you rely on polling with a historically good track record. And Minnesota could be a near tie.
The polls were wrong in 2014, and 2016 elections, In October 2016, Real Clear Politics had Hillary Clinton up 7 points, and then Donald Trump won the election a few weeks later.
it appears Joe Biden is winning, but if you look at historically accurate polling in states where the election most matters, Donald Trump may have an electoral advantage.
In March 2020, Dr. Fauci said, “While masks may block some droplets, they do not provide the level of protection people think they do. Wearing a mask may also have unintended consequences.”
Months later, wearing masks has become a political flashpoint issue as COVID cases have yet to recede in parts of the nation, but here is Dr. Fauci yesterday at a baseball game after throwing out the first pitch, now not wearing his mask, and not social distancing.
America has a Federalist government, meaning that the Federal government does not exercise central control over our 50 states, but works in conjunction with the states, who also have their own Constitutional and state level powers. In times of a pandemic, states do have police power, and can make their own decisions on mask mandates.
Federally, there is no national mask mandate, even though many want this in a bad way. It continues to be this writer’s opinion that COVID is a contagious virus, we know who is most vulnerable to COVID related illness and they should be protected, but for a nation the size of America where infections are not soaring everywhere, it is important to keep perspective and a cool head, and not impose mandates on everyone to be politically correct.
While caution is wise, the COVID-19 hysteria continues to be severely overhyped.
If you want to wear a mask, have at it. But please don’t be a hypocrite.
Republicans didn’t lose the House last month to gun control, climate change, or immigration. They got wiped out in the suburbs, and elsewhere by Health care.
2018 Midterms was about Health care. Period.
If last night’s ruling holds, Republicans can weaken themselves electorally in suburbs, and swing states, thereby putting the Republican Presidency at risk in 2020, and losing odds to win back the House.
This isn’t 2010. Health care is now a political winner, and pre-existing conditions are the new Holy Grail of Health Care.
Next time Dems are in power, they’ll push for Medicare-for-all, which would be a disaster.
We’ll see how the coming months go, but at this point, if the Obamacare ruling holds, I’m thinking Congress gives Trump his wall, in exchange for protecting pre-existing conditions.
RT nicholaskitchel: This is the photo taken at the White House right after HouseGOP voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act last year.
Everyone with an ❌ has since been voted out of Congress.
– President Trump has NOT been implicated in a crime. There is no evidence here to support an allegation.
– The President cannot be charged in office.
– Tough for prosecutors to prove illegal campaign finance violations by Trump, even if legit evidence ever emerged. In addition, Michael Cohen has a major credibility problem.
– POTUS could pardon himself.
– Partisans are holding President Trump up to a legal standard that the Obama Campaign violated, much worse, and then settled with a fine; for a total bigger than Cohen’s total case.
– Impeachment is not a legal proceeding. It is political. If the House of Representatives wants to impeach the President during a major election cycle term, have at it. Without evidence, the votes in the Senate to convict are just not there.